By Lee Odess, CEO of The Access Control Collective
There is much conversation right now about mobile, NFC and wallets. I am well documented in my belief that what’s going on right now is the introduction of the first luxury good in our industry that will drive mainstream adoption ($100B market) beyond the traditional cottage industry of high security ($10B market). With that thought comes the realization that while it’s an incremental step — albeit the right step — it alone is not transformative. We are at a more significant inflection point and need to have more conversations about what the future will look like.
To be fair, I do not have a crystal ball more than anyone else. However, I have spent a reasonable amount of time traveling to many markets worldwide and having countless conversations about what it may look like. Here are my thoughts on how physical access control systems (PACs) will evolve and what customers value most in this new era.
The End of Friction
Tomorrow’s access control systems will make our current “badge-in” process seem as outdated as physical keys. Not the COVID-era “frictionless” solutions our industry opportunistically pushed into the market — we should be a bit embarrassed about that rushed approach. Instead, I envision seamless systems using advanced biometrics, gait analysis and intention prediction algorithms to create genuine frictionless entry experiences.
Imagine walking toward a secure area and having doors automatically recognize you, assess your clearance level, and grant access — all ethically and without reaching for a badge or phone. This isn’t just about convenience; these systems will employ advanced sensors and AI-powered analytics to maintain continuous security awareness, making split-second decisions about access rights based on real-time environmental and behavioral data.
Predictive Security
I believe future PACs will shift dramatically from reactive to proactive security measures. Machine learning algorithms will analyze patterns in access requests, user behaviors and environmental factors to identify potential security risks before they materialize. I’m particularly excited about solving complex problems that current systems struggle with, such as tailgating.
These systems will enable real-time risk assessment and dynamic policy enforcement. When unusual patterns are detected — such as an employee attempting to access a restricted area outside their regular hours — the system will automatically escalate security measures while handling the situation independently.
The ROI Revolution
Let me be clear: no one can tell me with a straight face that the way our systems are set up and configured has to be manual and start at zero every time. Next-generation access control systems will dramatically reduce the need for manual oversight and intervention, leading to substantial operational efficiencies and cost savings. Want to make more money, add value and be even stickier than the last 30 years? This is how.
Thanks to the systems’ ability to adapt and evolve without frequent hardware changes, organizations will see reduced security personnel costs, decreased insurance premiums and lower maintenance expenses. The data analytics capabilities will provide unprecedented insights into space utilization, employee movement patterns, and operational bottlenecks, transforming access control from a necessary expense into a strategic asset.
Data-Driven Intelligence
This is what “cybersecurity” would look like if our industry moved from high-level conversations to actual implementation. Future systems will harness big data and advanced analytics, collecting information from various sources and transforming it into actionable intelligence. I firmly believe whoever owns the data is going to win — period. Every access control company needs to consider this.
The insights will extend beyond security applications, informing decisions about space utilization, energy management and human resources planning. Access patterns could drive choices about office layout changes, HVAC system optimization, or staffing adjustments, making these systems strategic assets for overall organizational management.
The Trust Factor
The COVID-19 pandemic shattered the trust and comfort customers once had in their chosen “ride-or-die” access control systems. Moving forward, the brands and systems that will earn customers’ confidence must demonstrate actual future readiness, with the flexibility to scale up and down and adapt to new challenges without requiring complete overhauls.
The AI Agent Revolution
What excites me most is the potential of AI agents. During a recent conference, when asked if our systems were underpriced, a security lead from a large financial firm argued they weren’t, explaining how our system is just one piece of the puzzle requiring a team to set up and manage. That’s a fair point, but here’s where we need to push our thinking: What if we didn’t need all those people? What if our systems could configure themselves, even partially?
The good news is that we could bring this future to the present now. It comes down to desire and incentives. I know many customers are waiting for us to do so. This shift from simple access management to intelligent, data-driven security ecosystems represents an evolution in technology and a fundamental reimagining of how we secure and interact with our built environment.
I welcome your thoughts on this vision for our industry’s future. To continue the conversation, connect with me on LinkedIn at ln/leeodess or email me at lee@leeodess.com.
Lee Odess is CEO of The Access Control Collective (TACC), a portfolio of media brands including the Access Control Executive Brief, a leading industry Slack community, and The Security Breakdown newsletter. A recognized thought leader in access control and smart lock technology, he provides strategic insights through digital content creation, TACC’s consulting and events platforms. Learn more at tacc.me.